CFTC-regulated · event contracts
Prediction markets in the US, explained
A prediction market is a set of event contracts — simple Yes or No questions about real-world outcomes that you can trade the way you would any exchange-listed instrument. On Plus500 US they are CFTC-regulated and listed via the Kalshi exchange. This guide explains exactly how they are priced, what they cost, and where the risk sits: the price you pay for a contract is the most you can lose on it.
Last updated: 25 August 2026
What event contracts are
An event contract is a binary Yes/Noquestion about something that will resolve one way or the other — for example, whether a given economic figure will land above a threshold. Each contract is priced from 0 to 100 cents, and that price is the market's implied probability of a Yes: a contract trading at 60¢ means the market is pricing roughly a 60% chance.
At resolution the contract settles at $1 if it is correct and $0 if it is not. Because you pay the price up front, that price is also your maximum loss on the contract — a Yes contract bought at 40¢ can gain up to 60¢ if it settles at $1, but you lose the full 40¢ if it settles at $0. You trade these contracts; the framing is the same as any other exchange-listed market, not a stake on an outcome.
The one thing to hold onto: price = implied probability, settlement is $1 or $0, and the price you pay is the most you can lose. Everything else is detail on top of that.
They are CFTC-regulated event contracts on the Kalshi exchange
This is the part that separates US prediction markets from anything offshore. The contracts are CFTC-regulated event contracts on a designated exchange, listed on KalshiEXand cleared through Plus500's Kalshi clearing membership. They are traded on the same regulated rails as futures, through Plus500US Financial Services LLC d/b/a Plus500 — a Futures Commission Merchant registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (NFA ID 0001398).
You can confirm the entity yourself by looking up NFA ID 0001398 on the NFA BASIC register. Regulation covers how the market is run and how contracts settle — it does not make trading safe or guarantee a return. You can still lose the full price you pay for any contract.
What you can trade
Event contracts on Plus500 US span a broad set of categories, each a specific Yes/No question with a defined settlement condition:
- Economics
- Politics
- Elections
- Crypto
- Financials
- Commodities
- Companies
- Sports
- Entertainment
- Science & Tech
- Climate & Weather
Sports event contracts were added to the US offering on 29 June 2026, after the initial B2C launch on 3 February 2026.
Costs
Event contracts are cheap to trade: $0.01 per contract per side in commission, plus a $0.01 exchange fee. Those fees are on top of the contract price, so they add to both your entry cost and your maximum loss. The full detail, drawn from Plus500's own US disclosures:
| Exchange | Listed on KalshiEX; cleared via Plus500's Kalshi clearing membership |
|---|---|
| Regulation | CFTC-regulated event contracts on a designated exchange |
| Contract | Binary Yes/No, priced 0–100¢ as implied probability |
| Settlement | Correct contract settles at $1, incorrect at $0 |
| Commission | $0.01 per contract, per side, plus a $0.01 exchange fee |
| Minimum deposit | $10 per deposit transaction |
| Launched | US B2C launch 3 Feb 2026; sports event contracts added 29 Jun 2026 |
| Categories | Economics, Politics, Elections, Crypto, Financials, Commodities, Companies, Sports, Entertainment, Science & Tech, Climate & Weather |
| Availability | Per-event; some contracts are restricted by state — availability shows on each event's details screen |
State availability
Availability is per-event, not blanket. Per-event; some contracts are restricted by state — availability shows on each event's details screenThat means the same account can show one contract as tradable and another as restricted, depending on where you are. Always check the event's details screen in the platform before trading rather than assuming a given contract is open to you.
A worked example
Suppose a Yes contract on some outcome is trading at 40¢ (the market implying roughly a 40% chance). You buy one Yes contract. Here is the whole shape of the position:
| What you pay | 40¢ for the contract, plus $0.01 commission and $0.01 exchange fee |
|---|---|
| If it settles Yes ($1) | You receive $1 — a gain of 60¢ over the 40¢ price, less the fees you paid |
| If it settles No ($0) | The contract is worth nothing — you lose the full 40¢ you paid, plus the fees |
| Maximum loss | Capped at the 40¢ premium plus fees — but that entire amount is at risk |
The attraction is that the loss is known and capped before you enter — you cannot lose more than you paid. The counterpart is that the outcome is binary: a contract that settles against you goes to $0, and the full price plus fees is gone. The 40¢ figure here is illustrative only; live prices move with the market's view of the outcome.
Read next
- Plus500 US review — fees, regulation, funding and how to open an account.
- US futures guide — the other CFTC-regulated product on the same platform.
- US desk — what US traders can and cannot legally trade.
FAQ
What is an event contract on Plus500 US?
It is a binary Yes/No contract on a real-world outcome, priced from 0 to 100 cents to reflect the market's implied probability. A correct contract settles at $1 and an incorrect one at $0, so the price you pay is also the maximum you can lose on it. You trade event contracts; you do not place a stake.
Are Plus500 US prediction markets regulated?
Yes. They are CFTC-regulated event contracts listed on the Kalshi exchange (KalshiEX) and offered through Plus500's US futures platform, cleared via Plus500's Kalshi clearing membership. Regulation governs how the market operates, not whether you profit — you can still lose the full amount you pay for a contract.
What does it cost to trade an event contract?
Commission is $0.01 per contract per side, plus a $0.01 exchange fee. The minimum deposit is $10 per deposit transaction. Those fees are added to the price you pay, so they form part of your total cost and your maximum loss.
What can I trade event contracts on?
Categories span Economics, Politics, Elections, Crypto, Financials, Commodities, Companies, Sports, Entertainment, Science & Tech, Climate & Weather. Each is a specific Yes/No question with a defined settlement condition.
Are event contracts available in every US state?
Availability is per-event and some contracts are restricted by state. The restrictions for any given contract show on that event's details screen in the platform, so check there before trading rather than assuming a contract is available.
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